The 2024 NBA Playoffs are in full swing and, at the time of writing, only eight teams remain: Oklahoma City Thunder, Dallas Mavericks, Minnesota Timberwolves, Denver Nuggets, Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavalier, Indiana Pacers and the New York Knicks.
One quick look at the NBA finals odds will tell you that there is a clear favourite for the Larry O’Brien trophy amongst those eight teams, but just how right are the odds? Can they be trusted to reliably pick the winner of the playoffs?
In a bid to answer that question, we’ve analysed the chances of all eight teams left in the end of season showdown below, starting with…
Cleveland Cavaliers +8000
According to the latest odds the Cleveland Cavaliers have a 1.6% implied probability of winning the playoffs which, if you don’t know is a very, very low chance of success…
The Cavs come into the playoffs off the back of a pretty respectable regular season in which they posted a 48-34 record but the reason for their lowly odds has less to do with their form and more to do with who they’re facing.
On Wednesday, May 8 they travel to Boston to take on the Celtics who boast a 64-18 regular season record and seem to be one of the best sides in recent NBA history. So, perhaps that’s why the sportsbooks aren’t looking so favourably on the Cavs…
Indiana Pacers +5000
The Pacers secured their first playoff series victory in a decade last week by beating the Bucks 120-98 in Game 6, yet according to the sportsbooks they have a snowball in hell’s chance of winning the whole thing.
On the face of it that seems pretty harsh, but you have to remember that the Bucks side that they beat in the last round were severely depleted with two-time league MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo being the biggest miss.
The Pacers also have to contend with the Knicks in the Conference semi-finals who finished second in the regular season standings.
New York Knicks +1100
Okay this is another example of the odds representing not this team’s form, but their potential opponents. If all things go to form and the Knicks beat the Pacers they will almost certainly face the Celtics in the Conference final and that probably won’t end well for them…
There are reasons to be hopeful for Knicks fans though as their roster is one that is almost perfectly suited to pulling off an upset against a team as talented as the Celtics. They’re team focused, they’re physical and they fight to the end, all of which could stand them in good stead in the Conference Final.
Dallas Mavericks +900
The Mavericks are the weakest of the four teams left in the Western Conference and will have to go some to beat the Thunder in their semi-final, let alone go the distance and win the playoffs outright. At one point in March it looked as though the Mavs might have blown their postseason hopes altogether so making it this far is a success in itself.
Oklahoma City Thunder +850
The only bit of hope we could give Mavericks fans ahead of their semi-final is that their opponents, the Thunder aren’t a team to be afraid of. Yes, they are a team stacked with talent but on the other hand their roster is relatively low on experience.
Whilst they are more than capable of beating anyone in the NBA on their day, it remains to be seen if they can have enough days like that to advance through the playoffs.
Minnesota Timberwolves +600
The Timberwolves have been good this season, finishing with a 56-26 regular season record but they’re up against it in the semi-finals and that’s perhaps why they’re rated so lowly in the playoff outrights.
If they can overcome the Nuggets they stand as good a chance as anyone of stopping the Celtics.
Denver Nuggets +425
Now technically at the time of writing, the Timberwolves are on course to progress having beaten the Nuggets in Game 1. We expect the Nuggets to turn that around though as they wear down the Timberwolves with their progressive and elegant offensive game.
Boston Celtics +115
Ladies and Gentlemen, we present to you the 2024 NBA Championship winners…The Boston Celtics! Now obviously we know that anything can happen in professional sport and that there is no such thing as a done deal but the Celtics are the closest we’ll ever get to that.
They are phenomenal all over the court and in a format such as the playoffs where the cream rises to the top, expect that cream to be Celtics coloured.